Thursday night 12/2 HOUSTON AT PHILADELPHIA: Pick: Eagles

Before I get to the rest of my Week 12 picks, a few thoughts about the Thanksgiving games. The Patriots and Jets had similar holiday outings: Both teams fell behind in the first half, rebounded in the second and notched their ninth wins of the season. But there’s one major difference I saw between these two AFC contenders, and it’s the reason why I think the Pats will prevail easily in the big Monday night game on December 6.

Discipline.

Against Detroit, the Pats committed five penalties worth 50 yards, but none of those flags came at crucial stages of the game. The Jets, on the other hand, accrued eight penalties worth 68 yards. On paper, it’s not a monumental difference. But New York was flagged for THREE illegal blocks (shouldn’t happen on a “well-coached team”) and a roughing-the-passer penalty that kept a Bengals’ drive alive at a key point in the game. Against a good team, the Jets would’ve paid dearly for their mistakes.

That’s been the theme for the Jets during the last month. They consistently shot themselves in the foot, but got away with it because they faced the Lions, Browns, Texans and Bengals. It will be an entirely different scenario for Rex Ryan’s band of misfits when they enter Foxborough in 10 days.

As confident as I am about the Pats’ chances against the Jets, their defense still frustrates me to no end. Their third-down efforts are horrendous, and their tackling, at times, looks extremely sloppy. But the NFL is all about offense. A bend-but-don’t break defense that forces turnovers in clutch spots can do the trick…if the offense can carry the load. And right now, there’s no offense with more weapons right now than the New England Patriots.

And it always helps to have some discipline. As much as I can’t stand Rex Ryan, I have to credit him for his honesty. During his post-game press conference on Thursday night, he was asked about his team’s upcoming date with the Patriots: “We know they'll outcoach us, but we have to overcome that.” He may be insufferable, but at least he’s not delusional.  

MINNESOTA AT WASHINGTON: Pick – Redskins

TENNESSEE AT HOUSTON: Pick – Texans

JACKSONVILLE AT N.Y. GIANTS: Pick – Giants

PITTSBURGH AT BUFFALO: Pick – Steelers

CAROLINA AT CLEVELAND: Pick – Browns

GREEN BAY AT ATLANTA: Pick – Packers

KANSAS CITY AT SEATTLE: Pick – Seahawks

MIAMI AT OAKLAND: Pick – Dolphins

ST. LOUIS AT DENVER: Pick – Broncos

PHILADELPHIA AT CHICAGO: Pick – Eagles

TAMPA BAY AT BALTIMORE: Pick – Ravens

SAN DIEGO AT INDIANAPOLIS: Pick – Colts

SAN FRANCISCO AT ARIZONA: Pick - Cardinals

Happy Thanksgiving!!! Nothing like spending the day with loved ones, eating some great food and watching some football.

NEW ENGLAND AT DETROIT: Is this another trap game for the Patriots? They’re coming off huge wins over Pittsburgh and Indy, plus they’ve got a Monday night showdown with the Jets looming in Week 13, a game that will likely decide the AFC East and perhaps the top seed in the conference come playoff time.

Detroit is a game most Pats fans circled as an easy ‘W’ when the 2010 schedules were initially released. But I suppose the same could be said for their date with Cleveland in Week 9. On paper, the two-win Browns were a cakewalk. That’s not how it turned out.

And that’s exactly why I think the Pats will win. To quote the ever-so-eloquent former leader of the free world, George W. Bush: “Fool me once, shame on — [pauses] — shame on you. Fool me — [pauses] — You can't get fooled again.”

God, I love that quote. On Thanksgiving, I’m thankful for many things, and that quote is one of them. If I’m ever having a crappy day, I’ll just go to YouTube and find a bumbling George W. clip to put a smile on my face.

So, the Pats will pull this one out. It’ll be close most of the way, but the good guys take control down the stretch. PICK: PATRIOTS

NEW ORLEANS AT DALLAS: The Cowboys are riding some momentum with Jason Garrett calling the shots, and this is pretty much their Super Bowl. At home, Thanksgiving Day, against the defending champs.  I’m picking the Boys in the upset of the day. PICK: COWBOYS

CINCINNATI AT N.Y. JETS: New York hasn’t been winning pretty, but they’re facing a team that just hasn’t been winning. Won’t be close. PICK: JETS

Last week: 10-6

Season Record: 99-61

Week 11 (Thursday night game): 

CHICAGO AT MIAMI: Injuries have forced the Dolphins to lean on third-string quarterback Tyler Thigpen, while the Bears are coming off a big win over the Vikings. But I've had success picking the Phins this season, so I'm sticking with it. PICK: DOLPHINS

Week 10 picks:

TENNESSEE AT MIAMI: Randy Moss returns to Sun Life Stadium, the last venue he played in as a New England Patriot. Moss caught ZERO passes in that Monday Night Football game on Oct. 4. Both of these teams are embroiled in tight races in their respective divisions. A couple of old-timers will be taking snaps: Chad Pennington gets the start for Miami, and I think he'll light a spark on offense. PICK: DOLPHINS

CINCINNATI AT INDIANAPOLIS: The Colts are 5-3, which seems so pedestrian for a team that won its first 14 games last season. The Bengals are the Dallas Cowboys of the AFC; a returning division champion that is out of the playoff picture halfway through the season. PICK: COLTS

MINNESOTA AT CHICAGO: Well, Vikings fans didn’t disappoint last week. The “Fire Childress” chants echoed throughout the Mall of America Field. Yet Brett Favre managed to have a career day and the Vikings came from behind to snip the Cardinals. The Bears barely snuck by the Bills last week to avoid their third straight loss. PICK: VIKINGS

DETROIT AT BUFFALO: I can’t believe I’m picking the Bills for a second straight week, but they’ve got to win one game. Right? PICK: BILLS

CAROLINA AT TAMPA BAY: Wow, the Bucs really hung in there last weekend at Atlanta. The Saints or the Falcons will be one of the wild card teams coming out of the NFC, and common sense dictates that one team from the NFC East will sneak in, too. But still, Tampa Bay is in the conversation after nine weeks. I didn’t see that coming. PICK: BUCS

HOUSTON AT JACKSONVILLE: Texans wideout Andre Johnson is likely to play but is hampered by an ankle injury, which seemingly affected his production last week against the Chargers. Both of these teams are only one game behind Indy and Tennessee in the AFC South, so this is a huge game for both clubs. PICK: TEXANS

N.Y. JETS AT CLEVELAND: I’d prefer to see both of these teams lose, but that really isn’t an option in Week 10. The Browns are riding high off a convincing win over the Patriots – which is apparently worthy of a Gatorade shower for Coach Mangini – and the Jets are oh-so lucky they didn’t lose to the Lions. Cleveland has knocked off the Saints and the Pats in their last two outings, and the Jets haven’t looked so hot in their last two, so this seems like a very winnable game for the hosts. It’ll be a tight one, but I think the Jets will pull it out. PICK: JETS

KANSAS CITY AT DENVER: The Broncos haven’t won since Week 4, and they’ve had two weeks to prepare for the Chiefs. PICK: BRONCOS

DALLAS AT N.Y. GIANTS: I love watching the Cowboys lose, but I’m not going to lie: I kind of felt bad for them on Sunday night. That was pathetic. It’s not going to get any easier in New York. PICK: GIANTS

SEATTLE AT ARIZONA: How weak is the NFC West? The 49ers only have two wins, but they’re a pair of wins from a tie of the division lead. The Seahawks and Cardinals have two of the weakest offenses in the league. When in doubt, go with the home team. PICK: SEAHAWKS

ST. LOUIS AT SAN FRANCISCO: The Rams can’t seem to win on the road. PICK: 49ERS

NEW ENGLAND AT PITTSBURGH: The Patriots looked horrible last weekend. Just horrible. Their performance  reminded me a bit of their playoff loss to Baltimore last winter, with a horrendous start that they could not recover from. I know it’s a team game and no single player can be blamed, but Rob Gronkowski’s mishaps really took the Pats out of the game. Gronkowski is only 21 years old, so, these things are going to happen with youngsters on the field. The defense was anemic and the offense looked out of rhythm the whole game. Let’s hope that performance was an aberration. My gut instinct says that the Steelers are just a better overall team than the Patriots. BUT… Belichick teams usually deliver when there’s a cloud of doubt hovering over the franchise. (I know, spoken like a true homer) PICK: PATRIOTS

PHILADELPHIA AT WASHINGTON:  This is a very entertaining matchup. The Redskins bested the Eagles in October after Vick was knocked out of the game in the first quarter. McNabb was pulled out (for poor play) during Washington’s loss against Detroit two weeks ago. Lots of storylines heading into a game that will determine whether it will be a two- or three-horse race in the NFC East. PICK: EAGLES

Last Week: 9-4

Thursday’s Game: 0-1

Season Record: 79-52

11/11/10 8:45 a.m. - Almost forgot there was a Thursday night game this week. And a pretty good one, too! Just to make it official, I had to get my pick in. BALTIMORE AT ATLANTA: Matt Ryan is a beast at home, accruing a 17-1 record in the Georgia Dome. Loss No. 2 comes tonight for the former Boston College quarterback. PICK: RAVENS

Ouch. I only picked six out of 13 games correctly last week. No good.

Well, I think it’s safe to say I had a better week than the Minnesota Vikings franchise. Woah. I knew things were eventually going to fall apart for the Vikes, but I didn’t quite foresee a week when:

1) They lose to the Patriots, 2) Brett Favre leaves the game after taking a helmet shot to the chin, 3) Randy Moss refuses to answer any more questions for the rest of the season, then sings the Patriots praises while trashing his own coaching staff,  4) Moss, who joined the Vikings four weeks ago and cost them a draft pick, gets waived, 5) Reports surface that Moss insulted the team’s caterers, 6) Reports surface that owner Zygi Wilf considered firing head coach Brad Childress following the release of Moss….and 7) Last but not least, following last Sunday's game at Gillete Stadium, said receiver told said owner that said coach is terrible and should be fired.

When your coach is inept, your top receiver is unstable and your starting quarterback is an egomaniac, as well as reckless on the field and sext-happy off it ….it’s not rocket science: That team was destined to implode.

The Dallas Cowboys are lucky. Any other season, much of the national attention would be on the big disappointment in Big D. But the circus is in Minnesota this year.

WEEK 9 PICKS

CHICAGO AT BUFFALO: The Bills have to win eventually. It only makes sense that it happens in Canada. PICK: BILLS

SAN DIEGO AT HOUSTON: The Chargers are 3-5, but they’re very much in the AFC West title picture. San Diego still has the top-ranked defense and offense in the league. While the Patriots, who own the best record in the NFL, are 19^th in offense and 28^th in defense. Just shows how useless stats are. San Diego is not well-coached, but I still think their talent lifts them over Houston.  PICK: CHARGERS

NEW ORLEANS AT CAROLINA: Big win for the Super Bowl champs on national television over a solid Steelers team. By the way, the Steelers-Saints regular season game drew more viewers than Game 4 of the World Series. Unless the Red Sox, Yankees, Phillies, Mets or Cubs are involved, most of the country is indifferent about postseason baseball.  

I don’t see the Saints slowing up against the one-win Panthers. PICK: SAINTS

ARIZONA AT MINNESOTA: Who would have predicted that, after eight weeks of football, the Kurt Warner-less Cards would have a better record than Favre and his Vikings. I’d love to see Minnesota lose at home and listen to 60,000 fans chanting “Fire Childress, Fire Childress!” Hell, they could beat Arizona and the crowd still might chant it anyways. PICK: VIKINGS

TAMPA BAY AT ATLANTA: I‘ve been cognizant to the fact that third-year quarterback Matt Ryan is a rising star, but I just read a stat that took me by surprise: When playing on his home field, Ryan is 16-1 in his career. That’s Brady-like dominance. PICK: FALCONS

NY JETS AT DETROIT: Can’t tell you how sweet it was to watch the Jets get blanked at home. The Lions are coming off a big upset victory over the Redskins. Momentum is definitely on the home team’s side, but I think the Jets defense is too good for them to drop a game to Detroit. PICKS: JETS

MIAMI AT BALTIMORE: This may be the game of the week. I like the Ravens off their bye week. PICK: RAVENS

NEW ENGLAND AT CLEVELAND: Normally, a date at Cleveland sandwiched in between marquee matchups against Minnesota and Pittsburgh would seem like the perfect trap game. But this is Bill Belichick against Eric Mangini, who, if you remember, is the same Belichick protégé who blew the whistle on SpyGate in 2007. Good luck, Cleveland. PICK: PATRIOTS

NY GIANTS AT SEATTLE: Matt Hasselback is out of the lineup for the Seahawks, which thrusts Charlie Whitehurst (a.k.a. Jesus Christ, SEE PICTURE ABOVE) into the starting role. Whitehurst has never completed a pass in the NFL.  The Giants’ defense has sent five quarterbacks to the sidelines in seven games (Dallas’ Tony Romo, Detroit’s Shaun Hill, Carolina’s Matt Moore, and Chicago’s Jay Cutler and Todd Collins). Let’s hope Jesus channels some of his powers on Sunday. PICK: GIANTS

KANSAS CITY AT OAKLAND: The Raiders have scored 92 points in their last two victories. Romeo Crennel’s defense will bring Oakland’s offense back to Earth, but the Raiders will win a close one. PICK: RAIDERS

INDIANAPOLIS AT PHILADELPHIA: This is a tough one to pick. My gut says Indy, but the Colts are a lot more vulnerable this season. Plus, Philly in front of their nutty fans with Michael Vick back in the lineup…..Ehhhh, got to go with my gut. PICK: COLTS

DALLAS AT GREEN BAY: If you’re a Cowboys fan, look at the bright side: You’re in the running for the No. 1 draft pick. PICK: PACKERS

PITTSBURGH AT CINCINNATI: This also has ‘trap game’ written all over it for the Steelers. The 2-5 Bengals are hosting Monday Night Football, so this is practically Cincy’s Super Bowl. And the Steelers are in between games against the Saints and Pats. PICK: BENGALS

Last week: 6-7

Season record: 70-47

Week 8 Picks:

DENVER AT SAN FRANCISCO:  Not a pretty Week 7 for these two teams. The Broncos, on their home turf, allowed 59 points to the Oakland Raiders. The 49ers couldn’t beat the winless Panthers. Oh boy. Maybe it’s a good thing these teams left the country. The NFL probably didn’t schedule this game thinking that London would play host to two clubs with a 3-11 record. England will really take to American football with a matchup like this. PICK: BRONCOS

JACKSONVILLE AT DALLAS: On the topic of huge disappointments, HOW BOUT THEM COWBOYS!?! With Tony Romo likely out for the season, Dallas can officially kiss the playoffs goodbye. However, even with Jon Kitna behind center, I think the Cowboys can pull one out this week. PICK: COWBOYS

MIAMI AT CINCINNATI: The Dolphins are a good football team, much better than their .500 record. The Bengals continue to be an enigma, storming back from a 21-point halftime deficit at Atlanta last week, only to lose. Weird. PICK: DOLPHINS

GREEN BAY AT N.Y. JETS: Coming off a bye week, it doesn’t seem likely that the 5-1 Jets will have a letdown in their home stadium. But, I’ve got a feeling …. PICK: PACKERS

BUFFALO AT KANSAS CITY: Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick tallied 382 yards and four touchdown passes last week against the Ravens, which I’m sure had many fantasy football owners out there rushing to the waiver wire. But the Bills still found a way to blow the game and remain winless. PICK: CHIEFS

WASHINGTON AT DETROIT: Lions are well-rested after a bye, which followed a pretty good performance against the NFC East-leading Giants in Week 6. Won’t matter. PICK: REDSKINS

CAROLINA AT ST. LOUIS: The Rams squandered a golden opportunity to keep pace with the Seahawks, but they couldn’t hold off those resilient Buccaneers (Um, yes. Resilient and Buccaneers in the same sentence. The NFC is strange) PICK: PANTHERS

TENNESSEE AT SAN DIEGO: The Chargers embarrassed themselves last week against the Patriots. When a team makes silly mistakes like they did, you’ve got to look at the head coach. Undisciplined. The Titans are a better all-around team, but I still like the Chargers at home. PICK: CHARGERS

MINNESOTA AT NEW ENGLAND: We’ve been anxiously awaiting this one since Moss was traded. It’ll be interesting to see how the New England fans welcome him back to Gillette. I’ll be the first one to admit that Moss acted like a 5-year-old the last few months, but he still brought a lot of great moments to New England: Undefeated regular season, single-season TD reception record and a few circus catches. He deserves a nice ovation during the pre-game introductions.

As a Pats fan, I hope Favre plays. Belichick’s defense against an old, injured Brett Favre. How many interceptions? My guess is five. If Brad Childress had any guts (or brains), he’d sit Favre and give Adrian Peterson the ball all day. But he won’t. I have a feeling this one isn’t going to be close for long. PICK: PATRIOTS

SEATTLE AT OAKLAND: Hmmmm….Honestly, I have no clue. I can’t even pretend to care. PICK: SEAHAWKS

TAMPA BAY AT ARIZONA:  Cardinals haven’t lost at home. Bucs haven’t lost on the road. Maybe they’ll tie. PICK: CARDINALS

PITTSBURGH AT NEW ORLEANS: I’m really looking forward to this matchup. Saints will have a chip on their shoulder, fresh off a humiliating loss to the Browns. And the Steelers come in with the best defense in the league, allowing only 82 points through six games. PICK: STEELERS

HOUSTON AT INDIANAPOLIS: The Texans won’t sweep the Colts this season. No way. PICK: COLTS

Last week: 9-5

Season record: 64-40