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The Retired Investor: Despite the Rise of Streaming, Movies Still Matter
The movies, like everything else, are getting more expensive. With the trend toward streaming at home, you might think attending the cinema is a thing of the past. Nevertheless, theaters are hanging in there, even as they've lost their former glory.
The average price of a movie ticket has more than doubled over the last two decades. In 2004, ticket prices hovered around $6.21; today, they are $12.75 nationwide for an adult ticket, according to EntTelligence data. A Harvard Gazette survey found that the percentage of moviegoers who saw films frequently fell from 39 percent in 2019 to 17 percent in 2025.
We all know the answer. A Harvard poll last year found that 75 percent of Americans had opted to stream a movie at home rather than watch it in a theater. Why that would be the trend is twofold — convenience and cost. Higher ticket prices due to Inflation, production and labor costs, upgrades and extra fees, to name just a few variables, simply cannot compete with the price of streaming a film on television for a fraction of the cost.
Convenience is another almost insurmountable barrier to movie-going. No hassle to find a parking space, no having to "dress up" (whatever that means in a land of hoodies and sweat pants), no dog or babysitting expense, raiding the fridge for dinner or snacks while watching (rather than buying $15 popcorn), you can make at home for less than a dollar. I am sure readers can come up with some other convenience reasons as well.
With all that stacked against them, why are movie theaters investing in new luxurious seating, wine bars and gourmet food, sound systems that would blow out your hearing aids, and advanced projection technology costing $90,000 or more that puts you dead center in that cockpit soaring through the solar system?
In many ways, hope for better days ahead keeps movie houses spending. Streaming has disrupted their market, and rather than give up, companies have attempted to adapt and extend their relevance. The death knell for movies predicted by many at the outset of the pandemic never quite occurred.
What COVID-19 did was force many theaters to rethink their business. Theater chains began offering other amenities beyond simply showing films. Bowling, arcade lounges, gaming, and whatever else they could come up with to keep their patrons lingering longer. Comfortable seating where Baby Boomers and others can assume the couch potato position also helped.
For an old Baby Boomer like me who watches his pennies, I find the prices for those 65 and over reasonable. A family of four, however, could easily spend close to $100 after tickets, food, and drinks. And the theater knows this is where their profit margins lie, which is why most houses prohibit bringing in any food or beverages (even water).
Call me paranoid, but ever since COVID, I still mask up and have been wary of crowds no matter where I go, so sitting in a crowded theater for two-plus hours is less than appealing. For me to expose myself to a theater, the movie must be terrific — something that just screams big screen and totally immersive surround sound. Preferably, I'll choose an unpopular screen time to avoid the crowds. Not so my wife, Barbara.
To Barbara, movies are an event, right down to the popcorn. She enjoys the collective atmosphere, celebrating films like "Barbie" with friends, focusing more on company than the movie itself.
Keep in mind, too, that no matter how long I slave over a hot popcorn maker at home, she swears movie popcorn is better. Readers, be warned — she does not share her popcorn even with me. It appears she is not alone. The Gen Z population appears to be a growing segment of in-theater event attendees.
They are particularly attracted to anniversary screenings, blockbuster movies, and special events. Gen Z is now the most active cinemagoing demographic, attending more films per year than their elders, according to a Fandango study. They also spend more per visit on concessions and premium format screens like IMAX.
An update to Cinema United's annual Strength of Theatrical Exhibition report analyzes industry metrics beyond mere box-office numbers. They found that 77 percent of Americans (more than 200 million) saw at least one movie in a theater last year, and the number of habitual moviegoers (six or more movies per year) increased by 8 percent. Gen Z attendance increased by 25 percent last year, the largest increase of any age group.
These youngsters averaged 6.1 visits per year, up from 4.9 in 2024. But it was not all about blockbusters. In fact, Gen Z, while seeking experiences like Barbara's, was also looking for immersive moviegoing and unique concessions. This desire translates into bigger screens, enhanced sound systems, and more snacks on their minds. Consequently, it appears that the more than $1.5 billion theater owners spent last year upgrading their theaters was well spent.
And on the price front, a record of sorts was just announced by Regal Cinemas. It appears they are charging $50 per ticket for advance opening-night seats at 70-millimeter IMAX screens to see "Dune: Part Three" in December.
Rest assured, I won't be in the audience, but I'll likely see it at my local theater with my wife. Even if I wait three months after its release, I could probably see it on a streaming channel for the price of my monthly subscription. I reason it's a small price to pay for a date with my wife. After all, you can't put a price on true love.
Bill Schmick is the founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires. His forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of Onota Partners Inc. (OPI). None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-413-347-2401 or email him at bill@schmicksretiredinvestor.com.
Anyone seeking individualized investment advice should contact a qualified investment adviser. None of the information presented in this article is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of OPI, Inc. or a solicitation to become a client of OPI. The reader should not assume that any strategies or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold, or held by OPI. Investments in securities are not insured, protected, or guaranteed and may result in loss of income and/or principal. This communication may include opinions and forward-looking statements, and we can give no assurance that such beliefs and expectations will prove to be correct. Investments in securities are not insured, protected, or guaranteed and may result in loss of income and/or principal. This communication may include opinions and forward-looking statements, and we can give no assurance that such beliefs and expectations will prove to be correct.
@theMarket: Oil Surged, and So Did the Markets
It seems you can't keep a good market down. Oh, the bears tried, but equities managed another up week of record highs even as oil prices surpassed $100 a barrel.
The market's gains were helped by some mega-cap stocks that blew out earnings expectations (two exceptions: Meta and Microsoft). Big tech certainly delivered, sending markets higher on a day when oil hit $108 a barrel. And the Fed chair's swan song turned out to be anything but — at least for the president.
On Wednesday, Jerome Powell, the outgoing Chairman of the Federal Reserve, first announced that "nothing done" regarding interest rates. However, during the Q&A session, he told financial markets that he would not be stepping down from his position on May 15 as previously expected. He explained that political pressure was "battering" the institution, influencing his decision to stay.
It was almost comical, given the pressure on the Fed and its officials over the past year, to watch the president and his henchmen huff and puff at how this was an unorthodox position, and so political, etc., etc. The news was just a warm-up for what I see changing in the staid Federal Reserve Bank's future.
For example, the dissension among Fed board members at this week's meeting was the greatest since 1992. Four dissenting members (the Trump appointees) wanted further interest rate cuts, while the rest leaned toward holding rates steady; three dissented because they did not support the FOMC's easing bias in the statement.
Powell will remain a board governor and voting member for the foreseeable future. So, with Powell and others ready to "batter" back against any further politicization of the Fed, the new chair, Keven Warsh's job could be problematic. The divisions could also lead to greater volatility in financial markets, making FOMC meetings and policy far less predictable.
The latest data from the Fed's key Personal Consumer Expenditures Index (PCE) highlighted the need for an independent Fed as inflation expectations reignited. In March, PCE prices rose by 0.7 percent, the sharpest monthly increase since June 2022. Goods prices climbed 1.4 percent, mainly due to a 20.9 percent surge in gasoline and other energy goods.
In addition, the U.S. first-quarter 2026 GDP growth, a measure of the country's economy, expanded at an annualized rate of 2.0 percent, up from the previous quarter's 0.5 percent. Be cynical of government data. There is a tendency by the government to present the economy's best foot forward on their first estimate of quarterly GDP, only to revise downward the numbers later.
As investors try to stay focused on big tech, AI plays, and earnings, we are closing out the ninth week of a war that, it seems, nobody but the president wanted. It has gone on far longer than promised, with the annihilation of Iran's military capabilities greatly exaggerated. There doesn't seem to be any off-ramp.
The president continues to try to cow the Iranian Revolutionary Guard into submission with social media posts of death and destruction. These are followed by further extensions of a ceasefire based on nonexistent peace talks. In the meantime, the Straits of Hormuz remain closed, oil climbs higher (up 75 percent since Feb. 28), OPEC is on the ropes, and the polls, well, the polls say it all. The midterms are approaching, and nobody's happy.
The equation is quite simple. Rising oil price = higher inflation = higher-for-longer interest rates. And yet, we are at all-time highs. April was the best one-month return for the S&P 500 Index since November 2020, roughly a 13.6 percent gain. The Nasdaq and small-cap Russell Index gained even more. Are we overbought and extended? Yes. Are markets in nosebleed territory? Yes.
Given that the oil/Iran story is getting worse and is beginning to impact the world economies, why are markets celebrating? They believe that everything will come out all right in the end. The war will be over, or, if not, higher oil prices will surely slow economies, which in turn will reduce inflation growth, allowing the Fed to cut interest rates.
In the meantime, earnings have been stellar over this last quarter, so why complain? As for the future, we will worry about it when it gets here. Short-sighted? Uh-huh, welcome to the nature of the new market.
Bill Schmick is the founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires. His forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of Onota Partners Inc. (OPI). None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-413-347-2401 or email him at bill@schmicksretiredinvestor.com.
Anyone seeking individualized investment advice should contact a qualified investment adviser. None of the information presented in this article is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of OPI, Inc. or a solicitation to become a client of OPI. The reader should not assume that any strategies or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold, or held by OPI. Investments in securities are not insured, protected, or guaranteed and may result in loss of income and/or principal. This communication may include opinions and forward-looking statements, and we can give no assurance that such beliefs and expectations will prove to be correct. Investments in securities are not insured, protected, or guaranteed and may result in loss of income and/or principal. This communication may include opinions and forward-looking statements, and we can give no assurance that such beliefs and expectations will prove to be correct.
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