As of Friday, the government's closure is the second longest on record. The country has managed thus far, since much of the government's economic machinery keeps chugging along. As such, there is no reason why it can't continue.
By Nov. 5, if no compromise takes place, Donald Trump will make history once again — this time by beating his own shutdown record of 34 days during his first term. The partisan stand-off is so severe that the House no longer even meets, while the Senate continues its own version of Groundhog Day by voting and failing to pass any legislation.
There is no real urgency either, since Social Security benefits and Medicare payments still go out. The mail continues to be delivered, student loan payments are getting collected, ports are open, so tariffs are still being charged on imports, and the U.S. Treasury is still servicing the nation's burgeoning debt. And the administration has somehow found the money to pay U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents.
Today, Oct. 24, will mark the first missed paycheck for many federal workers. Service members were paid a week or so ago by moving funds around within the Defense Department. Americans who are dependent on the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) to eat have managed thus far, but these SNAP benefits will dwindle to nothing by next month.
Sure, there are disruptions. Clearly, federal workers and contractors are being affected through lost pay, work stoppages, and delayed contracts. Some economists estimate that $800 million in federal contracts is at risk each day. And we have until the Thanksgiving holiday before anyone cares about the air traffic controllers (unless, of course, there are a couple of near misses or a mid-air collision).
The GOP-controlled Congress is taking its direction from the White House, but the man in charge is too busy right now to divert his attention to opening the government. As I mentioned, the government shutdown is accomplishing much of what the administration had hoped it would. Bond yields are down, and spending has slowed considerably. His OMB chief has been able to cut several Democrat-backed billion-dollar projects, and there are fewer federal workers on the payroll.
Whether by intention or happenstance, the administration has successfully distracted investor attention from the shutdown, despite the media's insistence that it does matter. This week alone, Donald Trump has crowded out those concerns by instead focusing investors' attention on his on-again, off-again peace efforts to end the Russian/Ukraine war. His latest move, to add further oil sanctions on Russia, spiked oil prices higher by more than 5 percent.
In addition, Trump's attention was focused on shoring up last week's "done-deal" peace agreement in Gaza, which doesn't appear to be quite done yet. Then there is his escalating naval warfare on alleged drug boats off South America, his upcoming meeting with China's Xi Jinping, and lest we forget, his newest national concern. That would be a $250 million White House ballroom intended to put Europe's longest-reigning absolute monarch, Louis XIV's Palace of Versailles, to shame.
While the shutdown has left a data vacuum in government, the Consumer Price Index for September was released on Friday. It was a necessary use of available government funds, given that the CPI data is a crucial measure used by the Social Security Administration to adjust the dollar value of Social Security benefits. Wall Street forecasts called for an increase to 3.1 percent year over year. It came in at 3 percent.
Historically, shutdowns have not had a significant, lasting impact on the economy. That is because all that government spending will come back as soon as the government reopens. If some of that spending does not come back due to firings, failure to provide back pay, or spending cuts, the economy might slow for a quarter or so.
Quarterly earnings have been better than expected thus far. Analysts had expected an average growth rate of 7-8 percent. Out of 141 companies reporting on the S&P 500 Index so far, the gain has been 13.3 percent. Of the 63 companies included in that index, only nine have reported, and the growth rate was 26 percent.
This coming week, the Fed meets and is expected to cut interest rates by another one-quarter point. Trump will also meet Xi in South Korea for trade talks. The hope is that a breakthrough in trade will occur. Don't hold your breath.
If perchance U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent can cut a deal beforehand with his Chinese counterparts, markets should rally. If so, White House leaks will front-run the news. I will be watching soybean and China stocks as a tell. If his good friend Xi rebuffs his overtures, expect a little "Hell Hath No Fury like a President Scorned" action, and markets will swoon at the wrath of Trump.
Bill Schmick is the founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires. His forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of Onota Partners Inc. (OPI). None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-413-347-2401 or email him at bill@schmicksretiredinvestor.com.
Anyone seeking individualized investment advice should contact a qualified investment adviser. None of the information presented in this article is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of OPI, Inc. or a solicitation to become a client of OPI. The reader should not assume that any strategies or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold, or held by OPI. Investments in securities are not insured, protected, or guaranteed and may result in loss of income and/or principal. This communication may include opinions and forward-looking statements, and we can give no assurance that such beliefs and expectations will prove to be correct. Investments in securities are not insured, protected, or guaranteed and may result in loss of income and/or principal. This communication may include opinions and forward-looking statements, and we can give no assurance that such beliefs and expectations will prove to be correct.
@theMarket: Higher volatility reflects worries over trade deals, the shutdown, and banking credit jitters
By Bill SchmickiBerkshires Columnist
"Short-term volatility is greatest at turning points and diminishes as a trend becomes established," wrote George Soros in his book The Alchemy of Finance. Last week, I warned investors to expect volatility. We have had that in spades.
Verbal threats from both sides before the upcoming China-U.S. trade negotiations led to stocks whipsawing in both directions for most of the week. The continued government shutdown didn't help matters either, but it was two small regional banks that spooked investors most.
Concerns about credit among two regional banks, Zions Bancorp and Western Alliance, triggered an overnight sell-off on Thursday into Friday. Both companies were victims of fraud in the distressed commercial real estate market. This sparked concerns that other banks may also be victims.
In the meantime, China and the U.S. traded accusations, but don't get carried away by threats and counter-threats. It is reminiscent of Trump's first term and is all part of the positioning game ahead of the meeting between Presidents Xi and Trump at the APEC meeting in two weeks. I won't bother to regurgitate a list of the he said, they-said jawboning that had freaked-out traders booking appointments with their therapists.
Suffice it to say, most of the acrimony centered on China's near-monopoly position on strategic metals used in everything from fighter jets to cell phones. As an example, just this week, the Defense Department canceled a tender offer to purchase $500 million worth of cobalt over a five-year period. There were no bidders.
It was the first attempt to acquire this strategic metal since 1990. Cobalt is used in rechargeable batteries, magnets, and military systems. Beijing dominates cobalt processing and has built a significant stockpile. In comparison, threatening to limit our exports of cooking oil to China seems ineffective. In any case, I expect more of the same as we approach the meeting of the minds at the end of October.
The government shutdown, now the third longest in history, is dragging on with both sides digging in their heels and refusing to talk, let alone compromise. This week, we missed the most recent unemployment claims data, the Producer Price Index, and several other key macroeconomic data points. That leaves day traders in charge, with headlines providing the primary trigger for buying and selling.
Headlines like "Thousands of Treasury, HHS employees fired" got the juices flowing on the downside. "Court blocks Trump administration's latest mass layoffs" was also good for a few points on the upside.
Yes, the administration has taken advantage of the federal furloughs. The Office of Management and Budget has fired thousands of government employees. They have also transferred billions in federal funds away from what Donald Trump termed "Democrat programs" and infrastructure projects in blue states.
I had hoped the shutdown would have been over by now, given the need to ensure paychecks for the military, but Trump found funds to cover that Oct.15 deadline. The President's recent moves have bypassed Congress, raising questions about who holds the 'power of the purse' in government.
How much of these actions will survive the jurisdiction of the courts is questionable. A federal judge in San Francisco has already placed a hold on the government's firings, and many of these unilateral actions are likely to be overturned. However, the attempt to do so makes good copy for the President's base and may repair his failed attempt at cutting government headcount through the use of DOGE.
Given the sage advice of Mr. Soros, it has become abundantly clear to me that volatility is increasing at an exponential rate. From a low of 15, risk, as measured by the volatility Index (VIX), has jumped to 23.37 in less than a month. That is a 48 percent increase.
During that time, safe-haven assets like gold gained more than 16 percent, while the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond fell below 4 percent. On the other hand, Bitcoin, a leading risk asset, fell 8.8 percent. During the same period, the S&P 500 Index appears unable to surpass the 6,750 level. As the month progresses, the risk of a further pullback in the equity averages seems highly probable.
Bill Schmick is the founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires. His forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of Onota Partners Inc. (OPI). None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-413-347-2401 or email him at bill@schmicksretiredinvestor.com.
Anyone seeking individualized investment advice should contact a qualified investment adviser. None of the information presented in this article is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of OPI, Inc. or a solicitation to become a client of OPI. The reader should not assume that any strategies or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold, or held by OPI. Investments in securities are not insured, protected, or guaranteed and may result in loss of income and/or principal. This communication may include opinions and forward-looking statements, and we can give no assurance that such beliefs and expectations will prove to be correct. Investments in securities are not insured, protected, or guaranteed and may result in loss of income and/or principal. This communication may include opinions and forward-looking statements, and we can give no assurance that such beliefs and expectations will prove to be correct.
@theMarket: Trump Trashes China and Markets Swoon
By Bill SchmickiBerkshires Columnist
Friday morning started well enough until a post by the president ruined everyone's day. Irritated by several recent moves by the Chinese, he lashed out, threatening a "massive" increase in tariffs and canceling a scheduled meeting with China's leader. Markets fell on the news.
The last time I looked around noon on Friday, all three stock market averages were lower by one percent or more. NASDAQ was down more than 2 percent. After several weeks of everything going our way, Donald Trump has had a temper tantrum. I am sure his mood was already somewhat dampened. Maria Corina Machado, the Venezuelan opposition leader, was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize today.
It is an award that Trump has coveted and lobbied for all year. It could be a coincidence, but I suspect China was an easy target for his disappointment. At the same time, some of his hardcore supporters who are China hawks have been accusing him of being soft on China lately. Ostensibly, his outburst was in response to recent Chinese actions on the trade front. They have tightened export controls on rare earth minerals, added new port fees on American ships, and launched an antitrust investigation into Qualcomm.
Before this blowup, the markets meandered within a moderate trading range all week. One positive result of the government shutdown has been that Market volatility has dropped sharply, enabling equities to continue to climb to all-time highs.
Next week, quarterly earnings are once again on deck. Analysts expect corporate results to be relatively strong, which could support the markets. On October 15th, the military, along with other federal workers, will either receive a paycheck or not, depending on the outcome of shutdown negotiations. It appears that the Republican stance against any change in their position is beginning to crack around the edges. The Democrats' health-care concerns are shared by many on both sides of the aisle.
Polymarket betting indicates an 84 percent chance that Congress will pass a funding bill sometime after the middle of the month. Both houses of Congress would need to approve any bill before it is sent to the president. How long would that take? The betting odds indicate a 76 percent chance that this will occur by the end of the month.
My guess is that we will start to hear more compromise talk after Oct. 15, and the end of the current drama will follow a week or so later. If this were to come to pass, all the threats, sword rattling, and dire predictions would melt away. Any damage done will be reversed, and investors will continue with their business.
The only real issue with this shutdown business is that markets continue to operate without crucial economic data, such as inflation numbers, economic growth, and the state of the labor market. The Fed meets at the end of the month, but it is hard for me to believe that the central bank is as much in the dark as we are. I suspect that they have the resources to at least have a general idea of how the economy is functioning despite the blackout.
Investors remain convinced that the Fed will cut interest rates again at its October FOMC meeting at the end of the month. It is the primary reason stocks continue to climb, although 6,800 on the S&P 500 Index has been a difficult level to pierce on the upside. Precious metals and cryptocurrencies, which have experienced a strong run, are also starting to stall.
These could be early signs that the markets are due for a pause in the weeks to come. Do not be surprised if that were to occur.
Bill Schmick is the founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires. His forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of Onota Partners Inc. (OPI). None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-413-347-2401 or email him at bill@schmicksretiredinvestor.com.
Anyone seeking individualized investment advice should contact a qualified investment adviser. None of the information presented in this article is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of OPI, Inc. or a solicitation to become a client of OPI. The reader should not assume that any strategies or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold, or held by OPI. Investments in securities are not insured, protected, or guaranteed and may result in loss of income and/or principal. This communication may include opinions and forward-looking statements, and we can give no assurance that such beliefs and expectations will prove to be correct. Investments in securities are not insured, protected, or guaranteed and may result in loss of income and/or principal. This communication may include opinions and forward-looking statements, and we can give no assurance that such beliefs and expectations will prove to be correct.
The Retired Investor: Government Shutdown Low Priority For Investors
By Bill SchmickiBerkshires Columnist
Markets turned higher this week on news of the government shutdown on Oct. 1. It isn't the market's first rodeo in this area, so most investors are taking the long view.
The facts are that every government shutdown in history has been followed by a government reopening 100 percent of the time. Present betting indicates that this one could last anywhere from 10 to 29 days, but Oct. 15 seems the most popular bet.
It wasn't too difficult to predict this government shutdown. Both parties sought the drama, hoping to galvanize their partisan constituencies. Thus far, only the media, politicians, and federal employees have expressed much concern about the fallout. For Wall Street, the absence of specific key economic data, such as today's lack of the jobs report, is uncomfortable and inconvenient but not dire.
At a time when so much depends on timely information, such as the Consumer Price Index and non-farm payrolls reports, the market is in the dark to some extent. The Fed, for example, is expected to cut interest rates again at the October meeting, but that depends on the job data. No data means less confidence. Of course, the last few months of labor reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics have been nothing to write home about, so missing a report or two may not be all that disastrous.
My conspiracy theory of last week has proven more accurate than I suspected. I wrote that a shutdown would likely occur, sending the dollar and bond yields lower still, which are tactical goals of U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Better still, the president wants to cut spending in what he sees as liberal programs of the Democrats. So far, he has axed $8 billion in funding for green energy projects in 16 blue states, as well as $18 billion in infrastructure projects in New York. In addition, the shutdown provides him with an opportunity to reinvigorate his court-stalled DOGE agenda by firing more government employees.
All of this can be accomplished in a shutdown while blaming the Democrats every step of the way. I am surprised that the Democrats fell for it, but politics is not my bailiwick. Given their experience thus far under a second Trump administration, they must question whether discussions with Republicans without this shutdown would ever yield a compromise solution.
I do understand their desire to safeguard the health and well-being of millions who depend on Medicaid and Obamacare. And I do believe that Trump and his Republican legislators are worried about the optics of these issues as well, going into elections despite their tough stance today. Much of these spending cuts and firings, if they occur, will be overturned in the courts anyway, but it is the narrative, not the substance, that counts among voters today.
As for investors, they are much more interested in the government's continued commitment to opening the floodgates of state capitalism. This week, it was all about Big Pharma. In exchange for reduced drug pricing, along with company commitments to invest in the U.S., Trump offered tariff relief on pharmaceutical imports.
Pfizer was first to tip the scales by cutting drug prices on a host of older drugs in its pipeline. The president is also expecting more investment announcements from companies in that sector that will further his goal of relocating drug manufacturing back to the U.S.
However, that is just the tip of the iceberg. The administration is working on deals across as many as 30 industries, talking to dozens of companies that the government deems critical to national or economic security. The flurry of activity encompasses various segments of the economy, from semiconductors and quantum computing to non-tech areas such as energy, shipbuilding, battery production, critical minerals, and now pharmaceuticals. The administration maintains a list of 54 crucial minerals it is targeting, which is updated almost weekly. Six more minerals were added this week, along with potash, the most recent addition.
Interest in equity stakes in companies now includes foreign companies as well. For example, the U.S. government has offered to purchase equity in Australian critical mineral companies as part of a funding package aimed at expanding its supply and reducing its reliance on China.
At the same time, the proliferation of new tariffs on industry and/or specific products has replaced the more sweeping country-wide levies that are now being adjudicated in the courts. As I advised readers in past columns, the courts may slow the tariff war but not end it. A "Plan B" is already in progress. In preparation for a possible defeat of his use of the Emergency Powers Act, these new tariff efforts will follow a more traditional route.
Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 authorizes Trump to impose tariffs or quotas on imports if the product or industry is deemed to threaten national security. They are not subject to challenge. It is the reasoning behind his announcements of fresh investigations into lumber, movies, semiconductors, drugs, trucks, jet engines, and commercial aircraft, among others. The list can go on forever.
If these investigations determine that the products are a threat (and they will, since the investigators are all Trump supporters), tariffs are sure to follow. While these tariffs would be far less sweeping than his reciprocal tariffs, they offer significantly stronger legal protection. The race is on to accomplish all of this before the mid-term elections.
Stocks, bonds, commodities, and other assets continue to gain. The global bull market remains alive and well, with new highs almost daily. October, as we all know, is a dangerous month for the markets from a historical and seasonal perspective.
The risks are that this shutdown could provide the volatility that traders need to justify a sell-off if it lasts too long or takes an unexpected turn for the worse. Another concern is that the Fed might hold off on reducing rates again at the end of the month until it sees more data. I give that a lower probability.
However, on the other side of the ledger, there is a high probability that the Fed will cut interest rates again this month. Quarterly earnings announcements are also forecasted to be robust. My conclusion: stay invested, hedge a little if you feel worried, but otherwise ride the inflows higher.
Bill Schmick is the founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires. His forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of Onota Partners Inc. (OPI). None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-413-347-2401 or email him at bill@schmicksretiredinvestor.com.
Anyone seeking individualized investment advice should contact a qualified investment adviser. None of the information presented in this article is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of OPI, Inc. or a solicitation to become a client of OPI. The reader should not assume that any strategies or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold, or held by OPI. Investments in securities are not insured, protected, or guaranteed and may result in loss of income and/or principal. This communication may include opinions and forward-looking statements, and we can give no assurance that such beliefs and expectations will prove to be correct. Investments in securities are not insured, protected, or guaranteed and may result in loss of income and/or principal. This communication may include opinions and forward-looking statements, and we can give no assurance that such beliefs and expectations will prove to be correct.
@themarket: Markets Digest Recent Gains
By Bill SchmickiBerkshires Columnist
Investors experienced a rare occurrence this week. All three main averages were down for three consecutive days. That was a good thing.
Readers are aware that the markets have been in a melt-up mode for the last few weeks and are both overextended and overbought. Under these conditions, any excuse, no matter how flimsy, can trigger a bout of profit-taking. A government shutdown could provide the turbulence for a much-needed market sell-off.
With only five days to go before such a potential event, investors are getting nervous. Doubly so, because the administration is asking federal agencies to consider mass firings (not just layoffs) if the shutdown happens, this is thought to be a political tactic to get Democrats on board in passing another budget continuing resolution. If so, it has fallen flat, as Democrats say, "Bring it on."
A lengthy shutdown would likely send the dollar lower still, and with it the yields on government debt. It just so happens that those are two critical tactical goals of the U.S. Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent. He is struggling to sell billions in government debt without raising interest rates. A shutdown could help him there. Better still, the president could blame the Democrats for the shutdown, his firing of government employees, and a weaker dollar and yields. It may also help his pressure campaign against the Federal Reserve Bank.
Now that the FOMC meeting and subsequent interest rate cut are behind us, investors have immediately jumped to the conclusion that further cuts will take place through the end of the year. As it stands today, the betting on Polymarket indicates a 79 percent chance of a 25-basis point cut in October and a 68 percent chance of a similar size cut in December.
Now, Chairman Jerome Powell did not promise further cuts, although several Trump-appointed members of his committee continue to advocate for more cuts. The Personal Consumer Expenditures Index, released on Friday, indicated that inflation was rising, but moderately so. However, it is the employment data that most believe now takes precedence over inflation in the Fed's thinking. The jury is still out on labor weakness.
That brings us right back to the possible shutdown scenario where more job losses would add further pressure on the Fed to cut rates. If all this sounds like a conspiracy theory, rest assured, it is. I just figured I should add my two cents' worth to the conspiracy theory.
What happens when the Fed cuts rates in a growth economy? If one looks back through history, the stock market did exceptionally well. This week, the government's significant revision of its previous estimate for second-quarter growth bolstered the case for further growth.
Readers may recall that the first-quarter growth rate was an anemic 0.6 percent, caused by Trump's trade wars. Since then, the period from April to June, which was initially thought to have gained 3.3 percent, has now been upgraded to 3.8 percent due to an increase in consumer spending. For the first half of the year, the economy averaged 1.6 percent, which was not great, but is still much better than initially thought.
Tuesday will mark the end of the quarter. It would be highly unusual (but still possible) that we escape a downturn in October. Investors indeed evaded that happening in September. Even if we did have a pullback, it could be negligible compared to the gains we have accumulated this year. Remember that the anticipation of imminent monetary easing by the Fed can give a powerful boost to any stock market. The declining dollar and the relatively moderate range in bond yields to date have been the main macroeconomic trends supporting higher stock and commodity prices. Adding the Fed's easing into the equation, markets could see further upside ahead.
My call on precious metals has been remarkably successful, and now platinum is demanding its turn in the spotlight. China has performed well, as have emerging markets, AI plays, and increasingly speculative stocks on the ledger. Crypto, however, has given up some of its gains after substantial increases earlier in the quarter. Some argue that what happens to cryptocurrency happens to the stock market, but with a lag.
I see some elements of the kind of stock action I experienced during the Dot-com bubble. Remember, however, it took many more months before that frothy exuberance ended in disaster. Don't chase, stay invested, and expect pullbacks.
Bill Schmick is the founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires. His forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of Onota Partners Inc. (OPI). None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-413-347-2401 or email him at bill@schmicksretiredinvestor.com.
Anyone seeking individualized investment advice should contact a qualified investment adviser. None of the information presented in this article is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of OPI, Inc. or a solicitation to become a client of OPI. The reader should not assume that any strategies or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold, or held by OPI. Investments in securities are not insured, protected, or guaranteed and may result in loss of income and/or principal. This communication may include opinions and forward-looking statements, and we can give no assurance that such beliefs and expectations will prove to be correct. Investments in securities are not insured, protected, or guaranteed and may result in loss of income and/or principal. This communication may include opinions and forward-looking statements, and we can give no assurance that such beliefs and expectations will prove to be correct.
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