Home About Archives RSS Feed

@theMarket: Markets Still on a Roll

By Bill SchmickiBerkshires Columnist

Additional gains propelled stocks higher this week with all three averages closing at record highs once again. Despite the fact that more and more experts are warning of a possible fall in the averages, investors continue to pile into stocks. Should you?

The short answer is no, wait for that decline, unless you have no exposure to the stock market. That would be hard for me to believe if you have been reading my column regularly. My readers also know that the threat of a pullback hangs over the market all the time since we can expect as many as 2-3 declines in the stock market every year.

The economy, however, is still growing enough, and interest rates are still low enough, to justify the present level of stock prices.  Friday's nonfarm payroll data was just another example of the underlying support that is propelling stocks skyward.

The country's official unemployment rate has dropped to 4.3 percent. That is a historically low number and most economists would say we are at full employment now. That's not quite accurate, however, if you look at the "underemployment rate."

That is the number of workers who are presently working part time, but would prefer full-time work. If you add that category of workers with those who have a full-time job, you have an overall unemployment rate of 8.4 percent. That is quite a bit higher than the official rate but is still down from 8.6 percent in April and the lowest reading of the combined employment data since June 2007.

Anecdotal evidence from several CEOs around the country over the past few weeks seems to indicate that Corporate America is having an increasingly tough time filling job positions. And we are not just talking about skilled labor like engineers and IT specialists. Even service sector jobs like fast-food are crying for help.

Corporate America has had its own way when it pertained to hiring for the last decade or so. They could get all the labor they wanted, at the price they wanted. Workers, if they wanted to work, had to take whatever salary was offered, as well as a cut in benefits. Well, times are changing, and it is only a matter of time before business managers wake up to that fact.

I have been watching wage gains in the payroll reports for over two years now. The good news is wage growth has more than doubled from an anemic 1 percent 18 months ago to 2.5 percent today. Granted, the gains are up and down, depending on the time of the year, but the trend is your friend if you are a U.S. worker. And that just adds more support to the markets, since consumer spending is the lynchpin of what makes this country grow. Higher wages means higher spending, everything else being equal.

Enough about economics! The bottom line is that, regardless of what Trump, the Republicans, or the rest of the world is doing, right now the U.S. economy is in pretty good shape. As such, the markets have a cushion under them. That should keep any selloffs contained. So, sure, expect a 5-6 percent pullback any day, week, or month now, but don't let that get you down. It is the nature of investing. In the meantime, enjoy your gains.

Bill Schmick is registered as an investment adviser representative and portfolio manager with Berkshire Money Management (BMM), managing over $200 million for investors in the Berkshires.  Bill's forecasts and opinions are purely his own. None of the information presented here should be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. Direct inquiries to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com.
     

Support Local News

We show up at hurricanes, budget meetings, high school games, accidents, fires and community events. We show up at celebrations and tragedies and everything in between. We show up so our readers can learn about pivotal events that affect their communities and their lives.

How important is local news to you? You can support independent, unbiased journalism and help iBerkshires grow for as a little as the cost of a cup of coffee a week.

News Headlines
Hoosac Valley Train Car Catches Fire
Teacher of the Month: Emily Moulton
Pittsfield Wins County Youth Football Crown in Dramatic Fashion
A Poverty Line Frozen in Time
Willinet Cameras to Capture Monday's Williamstown Select Board Session
VTF&W: Homes for Bats on Halloween
North Adams Airport Hires New Manager
Daytime Construction Operations on I-90
Colombian Artist Celebrates Immigrant Stories in New Pittsfield Mural
Wahconah Park Grandstand Leveled, Close to Shovel-Ready
 
 


Categories:
@theMarket (602)
Independent Investor (452)
Retired Investor (314)
Archives:
October 2026 (7)
October 2025 (2)
September 2026 (8)
August 2026 (8)
July 2026 (10)
June 2026 (8)
May 2026 (9)
April 2026 (9)
March 2026 (7)
February 2026 (8)
January 2026 (8)
December 2025 (8)
November 2025 (8)
Tags:
Oil Interest Rates Stimulus Retirement Euro Selloff Pullback Markets Greece Japan Deficit Recession Taxes Energy Congress Rally Mortgages Election Stocks Commodities Banks Debt Crisis Currency Jobs Metals Fiscal Cliff Wall Street Federal Reserve Bailout Stock Market Housing Debt Ceiling Economy Europe
Popular Entries:
The Retired Investor: The Hawks Return
The Retired Investor: Has Labor Found Its Mojo?
The Retired Investor: Climate Change Is Costing Billions
The Retired Investor: Time to Hire an Investment Adviser?
The Retired Investor: Crypto Crashes (Again)
The Retired Investor: My Dog's Medical Bills Are Higher Than Mine
The Retired Investor: Food, Famine, and Global Unrest
The Retired Investor: Holiday Spending Expected to Stay Strong
The Retired Investor: U.S. Shale Producers Can't Rescue Us
The Retired Investor: Investors Should Take a Deep Breath
Recent Entries:
@theMarket: Markets Still Holding It Together Before Midterms
@theMarket: Inflation Jumps, Stocks Dump
The Retired Investor: Corporate profits better be good
@theMarket: Stocks Eke Out Gain for the Week
The Retired Investor: Could Higher Bond Yields Simply Reflect a Stronger Economy?
@theMarket: Equities Struggle as Oil And Bond Yields Continue to Pressure Stock Prices
The Retired Investor: The ailing housing market is getting sicker
@theMarket: Bonds Are Breaking Bad But Equities Shrug It Off
The Retired Investor: Hedge Your Home Heating Oil Now
@theMarket: Markets Cheer Fed Rate Hike