The Independent Investor: Secular vs. Cyclical — The Big Picture

Over the last four years, the stock market has gained over 100 percent. Some think we've hit the top, while others believe we are just getting warmed up. The difference of opinion centers on whether you think we are in a cyclical or secular bull market.

What's the difference? When you hear "cyclical," whether bull or bear, you should think short-term; a couple years at best, secular, on the other hand, can last from 5 to 20 years.

In secular bull markets, stocks rise more than they fall with any declines made up by subsequent increases in stock prices. In secular bear markets, the overall trend is down. It is a period of wealth destruction in which stocks decline more than they advance over a long period of time.

Within these long-term secular markets, stocks can perform counter to the trend for several years. These are called cyclical bear and bull markets. The period 1982 through 2000 was considered the greatest economic expansion in global history and a textbook example of a secular bull market. Yet, there were short recessions and several times when the markets declined during that period. As an example, the Crash of 1987 occurred during that secular bull market.

A secular bear market began in 2000. Yet, 2003-2007 were bullish up years followed by a devastating decline into 2009 (brought on by the financial crisis). Today's disagreement centers on whether the end of this secular bear market occurred with the lows seen in 2009.

Those who think that is the case date the new secular bull market as beginning as 2009. Although the gains have been steep, they believe the markets still have over a decade of growth ahead of us.

Others disagree. They argue that the last four years was simply a case of another cyclical bull market rally within a secular bear, like 2003-2007. Most believe that will end this year. They argue that this bear market won't be over until at least 2018.

Most of their argument rests on the passage of time. Statistically speaking, if you took all the bull and bear markets periods over the last 132 years and measured their average duration you would arrive at an average of 17.4 years. But statistics have a way of turning fact to fiction.

As another example, there has also been more secular bull years (80) than bear years (52) with the average gain of all secular bull market rallies equaling 415 percent, while the average losses of secular bear markets has been minus-65 percent.

All of these statistics are neat and clean but entirely unrealistic as an investment tool.

Consider: there were only three periods since 1877 when the duration of secular markets were even close to a 17.4-year time span and all of them have been since 1968. It is true that secular bulls provided far more gains than the bears caused losses, but the gains at times were only half the historical average.

Some of the smartest people I know on Wall Street are convinced that we have entered a new secular bull market. They are definitely a minority, but I happen to be in their camp.

After several years of worldwide governmental stimulus, both fiscal and monetary, the global economies are beginning to grow. I believe that global growth will accelerate in the years ahead.

The markets, in my opinion, are looking backward, focusing on the Fed's stimulus program.

They fail to realize that the Fed's quantitative easing has already accomplished its objective. All that's left is to let the markets begin to work on their own. That will happen early next year.

Bill Schmick is registered as an investment adviser representative with Berkshire Money Management. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own. None of the information presented here should be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. Direct inquires to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com.